Plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average.

"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages."
William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense
"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. ... In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable and comprehensible."
Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
"This is a book written for laymen with enough interesting insights to engage even the most scholarly professional."
Douglas Hubbard, Author of How to Measure Anything
"Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of Risk."
Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo Bank
samsavage
About
the Author