https://www.flawofaverages.com/home daily 1.0 2022-08-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/0d91be55-5f12-4f26-9f59-95f177e08290/FlawofAveragesBookCover.jpg Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/c691a889-77ad-45b8-9020-dc3cf5c83aaa/Chancification_cropped_border.jpg Home - Make it stand out Coming soon! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603751825859-64E394NO0TB43TCN8GU3/image-asset.png Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/3086145a-5c8c-4a01-a63a-1c99b7333b1f/RedWordGreenWordStackedSmall2.png Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608243616719-L5C55MQSNAKYMPRWTVJM/Sam_John.jpg Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605641939035-QW5SGTMCJ4S421FE5EV8/Shmuzzles.gif Home https://www.flawofaverages.com/top-ten-list daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603839559552-EXHWCRP1QFYH8JDH39DK/Sam+Doug.png Top Ten List of Lame Excuses for Not Quantifying Uncertainty https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-5 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605910723169-QPIZXLJSEKCKWOECLJRS/Airspeed.gif Chapter 5 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-overview daily 0.75 2022-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/5d118fd7-78a8-4202-94c6-f5105c44ee96/FlawofAveragesBookCover.jpg Overview - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603818603810-BY9VCBYRHR9JTZOAQ7Z8/Bicycle.png Overview https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603818773744-KTD97FBPX3Q53S19TM4K/SIPmath+Flood+3.gif Overview https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603822229313-021SNYNT7EDN4XEO6T2E/helomodel.png Overview https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603822418707-0Z7EEFV5J1KERVLEEU4T/PIO+%281%29.gif Overview https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-chapter-2 daily 0.75 2022-06-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603918881006-GW3J0TETHRZJ4INO6LEB/c02f002.png Chapter 2 Download Below Projection.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603920256345-4IJ20OCA2TIDFMUIYOC0/c02f005.png Chapter 2 Download Sparkland 2.0.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605728333288-718WG2V2FZNPARHWNJ5X/image-asset.png Chapter 2 Download Consolidated Risk.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603919492805-46YC310YLF84QZ9CC8H1/c02f003.png Chapter 2 Download Beyond Budget.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603920895642-6V8ZMI787W80SCJQJ7PJ/c02f008.png Chapter 2 Download Retirement.xls https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603919687383-B99Z83NWJFP9XU7P2NG6/c02f004.png Chapter 2 Download Flood Model.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605748747182-25D0R0I9V04XYOTPHRFB/image-asset.png Chapter 2 Farming Under Uncertainty.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605656318590-X6DQNF45P40CKZ393LGA/c02f013.png Chapter 2 Download Surplus-Deficit.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603918256263-XCCEBE5ME6XX73KZOOHD/c02f001.png Chapter 2 Download Behind Schedule.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605659426559-A3Z4KTR5GBKLW9E8BYXX/c02f014.png Chapter 2 Download SIPmath Portfolio 1.0.2.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603911453364-STKZ44I65UOWFDWVXHQE/Bicycle.png Chapter 2 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605642759746-75YYFEC8M7N03LC78K84/c02f009.png Chapter 2 Download Construction Project SIPmath.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605747620619-SBAR7K4JS66OQ5ZUD9WG/c02f019.png Chapter 2 Download Eagle Claw Simulation.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605643091059-7XZKBTNWPSPIH9BK058L/c02f010.png Chapter 2 Download SIPmath Gantt Project Planner.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605655844487-NVN8RGC3H1SMEKNKHKS5/c02f012.png Chapter 2 Download Reserves.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603920342697-W6STWNU2V8U7KG3DB3UT/c02f006.png Chapter 2 Download DiceCalc.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605655550951-8K3G4E08SCU9KM4TN8ZH/c02f011.png Chapter 2 Download SandbagCalc.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605728101194-BH3WS3ZQQJ6MMRKDDJEU/c02f016.png Chapter 2 Download Open Fair Risk Analysis.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603920712254-WD9QDQ9RPDHVEBC7Y6MD/c02f007.png Chapter 2 Download Shell Probability Management.xls https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605735734354-NP8A4KK0WSAUIUC3GW0V/c02f018.png Chapter 2 Download HealthRisk Costs.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605659650419-PGFB8KDL0ES8U0PYJ635/c02f015.png Chapter 2 Download Risk Register Rollup.xlsx https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1605747876611-QX8K8TTLLQEQZJFL4T1V/c02f020.png Chapter 2 Download Cost vs. Risk.xlsx https://www.flawofaverages.com/music daily 0.75 2022-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608319551647-N6BYSWAZA6ZPIIM2OZ42/Exponential.png Music https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/cc65cd60-be66-484e-b05a-9b2d00034549/Sam%2BJohn_Sun_Valley.jpeg Music - Make it stand out Sam Savage (left) and John Pearce in the early 1980s in Sun Valley, Idaho. https://www.flawofaverages.com/about-the-author daily 0.75 2024-05-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/92a1c236-6b80-48c5-94a8-9cba14e3436f/Sam_Headshot_2024.jpg About the Author https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-1 daily 0.75 2021-12-21 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-8 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1606953305747-IEY9CCMCBBPIQ398WOJP/c08f007.png Chapter 8 Figure 8.7 A spinner and its SIP. https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-9 daily 0.75 2022-03-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607475501067-L9VR4SNSQ944JGW5WGMO/Chapter+9+Georgian+Veranda.gif Chapter 9 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1606954841420-SAB0O481ZLYJ83YNXLYO/Chapter+9+2+Spinners.jpg Chapter 9 A simulation of two spinners https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607474409224-HNROE5AC43RGPVFA5T48/Chapter+9+Spinner+with+Bins.jpg Chapter 9 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607475696500-LJZM6V3MART9EUDYGZNW/Chapter+9+Diversification.gif Chapter 9 Animation of Figure 9.9 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-13 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607622920510-3MA5MOSA0TCTZ8W0MAE5/Chapter+13-2.gif Chapter 13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607622942539-IJBCX9NIZATPG3I366O0/image-asset.gif Chapter 13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607622807255-7UH1R16M6JH3CXDR8XLX/Chapter+13-1.gif Chapter 13 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-10 daily 0.75 2021-12-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607551890631-Q106CVWSIC2VL6DS6IQU/Chapter+10+Conf+Interval+2.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607558546016-FBRW1T4J83KKKWWJTQWP/Chapter+10+Spinner3.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607557378541-M4G12JIE8PN626D3R1MB/Chapter+10+Variance.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607550453945-V9IC19ZF0MAUCVA26MV2/gauss.gif Chapter 10 Carl Friedrich Gauss on a 10 Mark German Bank Note from the 1990’s: The Boy and His Distribution https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607551680934-SNEVBMGABN6X720UO7MI/Chapter+10+Mean.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607557727822-ZD7STB73DRYTQEJ24JQG/Chapter+10+Spinner1.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607552986683-GOQBDPA2FZTY5OHRLPY4/Chapter+10+Spinner.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607551740551-R8OACBJ3GX4CGMF0D1FM/Chapter+10+Sigma.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607551874567-R0IMEWPCAF1Z734W9YZ2/Chapter+10+Conf+Interval+1.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607553008534-ZZVBVELF10EVJKGF62GN/Chapter+10+Red+Words+Ahead.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607558228413-YQ8CE7UUO28K2IZZ7TQR/Chapter+10+Spinner2.gif Chapter 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607551909859-NQI6XUZ8Z63L63LKKVHZ/Chapter+10+Conf+Interval+3.gif Chapter 10 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-14 daily 0.75 2020-12-10 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-15 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-16 daily 0.75 2021-12-21 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-18 daily 0.75 2020-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607628789623-SSPC2ACV2SKHDEPX9T4C/Jeter_Justice_3.jpg Chapter 18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607628751242-83RH8EB59LI426JGXS20/Jeter_Justice_2.jpg Chapter 18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607628697703-U6M7N1OF638RMRGWSYYA/Jeter_Justice_1.jpg Chapter 18 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-20 daily 0.75 2022-03-15 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-21 daily 0.75 2022-03-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607712074844-33RXNWKNP9O4HJW0X94S/Annuity.gif Chapter 21 Animation for Figure 21.1 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/0a686c86-b260-4466-87eb-4ba9982ecd07/Portfolio.png Chapter 21 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/f25cd8ad-6027-49b0-a870-4128e7df28ad/Retirement%2B50.gif Chapter 21 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-22 daily 0.75 2020-12-11 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-24 daily 0.75 2020-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607712889192-00HN5QN96H9Q7YFT8UI2/RetirementAnimation60.gif Chapter 24 Animation of Figure 24.1 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-25 daily 0.75 2020-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607715482159-9MW6JI5WBE0R6CYVKVVB/animation.gif Chapter 25 Animation of Figure 25.1 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-26 daily 0.75 2022-03-15 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-27 daily 0.75 2020-12-11 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-28 daily 0.75 2020-12-11 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-29 daily 0.75 2020-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607717595071-7NPV4HYOF163NE7SLLQZ/ShellPManim+50.gif Chapter 29 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-32 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-36 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1607731743780-EQVPPW1AG6RPWRQ7DWOA/Figure.gif Chapter 36 Animation of Figure 36.7 Download the Markov model (Excel) https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-38 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608146880786-0D94QQBQYZBSMYJQAY2E/coronavirus2.png Chapter 38 https://www.flawofaverages.com/foa-chapter-11 daily 0.75 2022-01-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/29ccf4d5-9ff3-4660-a282-95727c6a3e8f/Airspeed.gif Chapter 11 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608592502958-G322L51YYVQNT5NVHII1/Epidemic+Calculator.png Chapter 11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608593074094-Y0APBTPSQLRK84WPFQIU/Covid+Risk.png Chapter 11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608592800158-0COQCCRCTA92K4H9T6LE/Beach+Social+Distancing.png Chapter 11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608593397179-1YMYBL6T643CUJT0C9W3/Covid+Detection+Tool.png Chapter 11 https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-chapter-13 daily 0.75 2021-12-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1608591331839-G8R0P0S6I8VG7E3GKDCN/Primer_border.png Chapter 13 https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-chapter-10 daily 0.75 2022-01-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/44d113f1-ad1e-4f19-a327-d877e662de1c/helomodel.png Chapter 61 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-overview daily 0.75 2022-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/c691a889-77ad-45b8-9020-dc3cf5c83aaa/Chancification_cropped_border.jpg Overview - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603822229313-021SNYNT7EDN4XEO6T2E/helomodel.png Overview https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603822418707-0Z7EEFV5J1KERVLEEU4T/PIO+%281%29.gif Overview https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603818603810-BY9VCBYRHR9JTZOAQ7Z8/Bicycle.png Overview https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/1603818773744-KTD97FBPX3Q53S19TM4K/SIPmath+Flood+3.gif Overview https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-chapter-6 daily 0.75 2022-05-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/200c291f-6546-40b3-bf9b-2ad117b659ae/Open+Fair+Risk+Model.png Chapter 6 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-chapter-14 daily 0.75 2022-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/646ff09d-d9c6-438d-aa55-383d4923986e/Ribbon2.png Chapter 14 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.flawofaverages.com/red-word-glossary daily 0.75 2022-01-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/8604aea6-d08c-4cad-9a4f-2aca9feb88c6/RedWordGreenWordGlossary.png Red Word Glossary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.flawofaverages.com/chancification-chapter-18 daily 0.75 2022-01-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/ee1ab03a-0353-4926-bbf3-685105bfd393/8_sec_rotation_Cropped.gif Chapter 18 - Make it stand out Animated version of Figure 18.7 https://www.flawofaverages.com/contact daily 0.75 2022-01-24 https://www.flawofaverages.com/books daily 0.75 2022-05-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/5d118fd7-78a8-4202-94c6-f5105c44ee96/FlawofAveragesBookCover.jpg Books - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f974d6c8a46a41eff4eb6dd/c691a889-77ad-45b8-9020-dc3cf5c83aaa/Chancification_cropped_border.jpg Books - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.